We got us a map! After the popularity of Patrick Ruffini's article about putting the donor data I have captured on a map, I figured I better do something before he steals all my thunder :)
So, I figured out how to do some stuff with google maps and I added such a map to the donors page. Give it a few seconds to load... it's a hefty page, but still not as bad as it was with over 7,000 names on it.
I'll probably add some more of these over time now that I understand how it works.
As always... suggestions and feedback welcome.
10/17/07
U.S. Americans Need More Maps
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6 comments:
I think you're full quarter total projection map needs "adjustment". All of the campaigns received more and more donations nearing the end of the quarter. There is somewhat of an upward curve throughout the quarter, not a straight-line estimation that you have. Check out the graphs for the candidate's funding amounts by week at the bottom of the nation map on the NY Times site to see what I'm talking about. As an example, Hillary Clinton raise 11 million of her first quarter haul of 23 million in the last week of the first quarter! She repeated a similar feat in the second and third quarters. From our own camp, Ron Paul raised 1.2 million of his 5.2 million in the last week of the 3rd quarter. Your graph should somehow take into account past fund-raising history into your projections. I don't know statistical math behind it though.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/finances/index.html
Running some numbers on Ron Paul's past fund-raising for 2008, he seems to have raised an average of about 12% of any one quarter's funds in the first 4 weeks, 32% in the second 4 weeks, 38% in the 3rd 4 weeks, with an average 17% push in the final week. This is all taken from the NY Times breakdown of when funds showed up each week. So if Ron Paul makes $1,998,431 in October, which should represent less than or about 15% of the total for the quarter, and if history shows itself to be true, than the end of quarter projection should really be closer to $13,322,873! I'll email you an excel sheet if you doubt my math. Again, it's perhaps not "pure" statistics, but it is, in my humble opinion at least, a better prediction than a straight line assumption.
In fact, I'm so confident in the pattern that I make this bet: Dr. Paul will get between $1,750,000 and $2,250,000 for October. He will get between $3,500,000 and $4,500,000 in November, and he will get between $4,750,000 and $6,500,000 in December with between $1.75 million and $2.5 million coming in the final week of December. If I'm wrong, I'll give Dr. Paul a $500 gift in January! (I'll probably give it to him anyways!)
I agree with Christopher. Just taking into account Week 1 and Week 2, there was a 64% increase week over week, if that % increase continues (it's likely to go up even more), then I'm estimating this month will bring in around $2,984,000.
Especially with RP possibly scheduled on the Tonight Show, that should bring in some big bucks right at the end of the month.
Don't forget to give out Ron Paul slim jims to all the parents trick or treating. :)
Hi Guys. Thanks for the feedback, I really appreciated it.
My projections are a very hot area of discussion, I have received dozens of emails about them.
I am absolutely planning on playing with the projections and trying to come up with the best fit. however, for the last 2.5 weeks that straight line regression is basically fitting the data like a glove.
Once I see some meaningful deviation from the least squares regression, I will be more motivated to do that work. But as long as the data holds so tightly to that line, it doesn't really seem pressing in light of the many other feature requests and ideas floating around.
I REALLY want to see some exponential growth, every morning I wake up hoping to see that bend in the curve... but it has not yet manifested.
As to the 65% increase in week 2 over 1... week one was especially weak due to the massive push the week before. I am much more interested in how the total looks on sunday night this week... With the press conference today and the adam curry interview at the end of the week... I'm really hoping things take off.
dan
Well, just be patient... the curve won't probably arrive until November if the past three quarters are any indication. However, the "Ron Paul Money Bomb" might skew results somewhat if it actually produces the intended results.
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