On November 5th we had 18,353 pledges and 38,905 actual donors (212% more) at roughly $103 per donation.
There are 32,473 Tea Party pledges... let's pretend 27 more sign up before midnight.. now we have 32,500. Assume we get the same overage percentage (212%), that would mean 68900 donors! If we assume the same donation amount ($103), we are looking at $7,096,700 for the day.
There are tons of other factors to consider... After the attention of the Nov 5th more people are going to donate... but were they more likely to give their email and make the pledge "official"? If a significantly larger percentage of actual donors are signed up this time, we could be looking at a number much closer to the Nov 5th total. On the other hand, if word of mouth has been a big factor this time, perhaps that overage percentage is higher, or at least the same... Or maybe the average donation will be higher... and maybe the Message from Ron will have an impact... maybe BlitzTheMedia had an impact such that the media will have an impact...
Not knowing what I don't know... all I can do is take what I do know and guess. I'm going to play it a little loose and predict a haul of $8,313,370. What do you guys think?
Speaking of predictions... how long until RP passes Huckabee for the month of December? 
Looks like he's got just over $500k on us for the month. It took us until about 6:30am on Nov 5th to make our first $500k... but I'm only giving him until 2:30am this time.
Post your comment with your prediction for the Dec 16th total, and at what time RP will pass Huckabee for the December total. I'll post the winners along with a link to their site or a quote... whatever... we'll work something out.
New poll in the side bar
12/15/07
Prediction Time, And A New Huckabee Graph
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76 comments:
It seems like you didn't include in Ron Paul's donations the offline donations. Huckabee's donation, however, are both offline and online.
My prediction is $12 million raised tomorrow, doubling RP's haul. Basically I follow your math, but I'm especially optimistic that the month and a half of planning means the average donation size will be substantially larger (remember, November 5th had much less run-up).
I also think the media blitz, the sign waving, and the blimp are factors - donations were on the upswing yesterday after blimp articles starting circulating, even before the latest word from RP.
I probably sound like a hopeless optimist, but I think I've stayed within realistic bounds.
As for Huck, I think we'll crush him by 1:45 AM EST.
I'd also like to call your attention to teaparty07challenge.com . If RP hits $7 million tomorrow - double your donation. If he hits $10m - double again.
I predict 10.3 million.
I did pretty good predicting 11/5 over at Laura's place, RedStateEclectic. I think I said 3.9 million.
I think the average donation size will be bigger this time.
Oooo So it's like a pool. OK
$10,010,101 raised tomorrow,
2:22am Ron passes Huck (on your graph as is, I think rogel has a point)
You should add a graph comparing December 16 to Huckabee's entire 4th quarter. That would be entertaining.
I think the donor / sign-up rate will be more like 1.5:1 with a slightly higher average donation value. Offical prediction: $5.1M. Not trying to bring anyone down or be contrarian, I just think its the most realistic measure. And even 5M isn't a bad one-day haul. $17M for the quarter is great.
$7,654,321 total
and @ 1:21 am
SAVE YOURSELVES. GO TO:
http://americansagainstronpaul.blogspot.com/
Anonymous trolls. ::rolleyes::
$7,023,910, give or take a million or two.
I'm predicting $8.1 million with the first $500k coming in at 1:30 am
Although I have a pretty good record of predicting voting results, I have horrible record predicting donations for Ron Paul :P. My guess is a little over 6 million, say 6.2 million. Ron will probably pass Huckabee around 8 am.
Whatever gets him over 20 million. I think donors would like to see that happen by the end of the day. Otherwise, I'd say around 7.2 million.
I predict $9.2 million and surpassing $500k at 1:59am
Roll on RP!!!
Put me down for $8.1mm...
The pessimist in me thinks that due to this event being closer to Christmas, that the results will be less spectacular than the November 5th money bomb.
That said, I still think that the total for tomorrow will be more than $5.5 million.
I think we will surpass Huckabee's total around 3AM.
I am personally planning to donate $100 at midnight, then another $100 around 1-2PM tomorrow. IF things are going well, I'll probably donate another $100 before the end of the evening (This should put be close to maxing out).
$43 million
Passes Huckabust by 12:12am
(This is bigger than any of us imagine)
My prediction 6.1 million for the day. I hope it is more, but this is still GREAT and would be the largest single day contribution by either party!
I predict a similar total to November 5th. Although more people will participate, I don't think the server can process transactions any faster. There will be a large spill over to Dec 17th as the system catches up.
what is glee bee smoking and where can i get some?
I, like chestertime, think that the donation ratio will be closer to 1.5 to 1.
I have no clue outside my own feeling regarding the size of the average donation.
I've suggested $5.5 million as a total in the previous blog post.
I do think a grater percentage will choose to donate after midnight tonight than did on the 5th of Nov.
I guess 3:00am for the $500k donation mark.
My prediction is 7.78 mil.
Passes Huck at 12:52 am
I am going to be a pessimist here:
5.8Million.
Passing $500K around 3:30am
Hmmm... 8,401,776 for the 16th
and 12:38 a.m to pass Huck-a-flop
I predict $6.5 mil raised tomorrow, and passing the Huckster by 3am EST.
$8.6 million or more, thus doubling Nov 5th and putting him over $20 million for the quarter. Sorry to be so pessimistic.
I can hear Wolf Blitzer now: "Amazing! Amazing, Congressman! But since you can't ever win, will you run on a 3rd party ticket? Do you promise not to? Cross you heart?"
I'm going to be pessimistic and say 3.2 million. And I'm going to be optimistic and think that when I go to bed tomorrow the total will be 8.1 million.
I don't trust the numbers from the pledges since I know anti-Paul people who have signed up en masse so they can crow about how we fell short of promises.
But I do believe we'll exceed the pledges. I'm giving $250 and my wife is giving somewhere between $100 and $150. My brother is giving $100, and my father is giving $100. Of the four of us, only I am registered with a pledge.
That being said, I'm not sure we'll break $6m. That's a huge amount of money for this project, but it pales in what Dr. Paul should raise.
There are 1 million freedom lovers in America who are vocally against the Federal leviathan. If each gave $100 over the 4 quarters, he'd be at $100 million. $6 million, even $10 million in one day is embarrassing for us supporters of liberty who refuse to put our money where our mouth is.
The next time I meet a libertarian (a title I used until about 3 years ago), I'll deny them the use of that title if they aren't on the donor list tomorrow.
$6 million is doable. More than that is unlikely, due to the inability of MOST supporters to truly put up what they should. I wish I could give $1000, but I'm leaving for an international trip this week.
I nailed the Nov. 30th amount, but I am iffy on this one. My mathematical projection says 7.7M, but I think I will go with 8.8M instead as I think the excitement will build throughout the day.
My guess is 7.7M, although I won't mind if it turns out I underestimated... We'll pass the Huckster by 2:30AM.
It's possible that we will do much better, although if we come anywhere near glee_bee's predictions all the other campaigns will officially soil their pants. It's not likely but I love the optimistic attitude! :-)
I wager that the average donation from those that signed up with be somewhere between $150 and $175, and that there will be approximately 17,500 additional donors, those not signed up, with an average donation of $85. Since that comes in very close to 7 million, I'm going to say $7,085,000 because the true believers will put in the necessary additional money to top $7mil, but only just barely.
I believe we'll pass $500k at 1:55am and pass Mike Huckabee just about at that time as well (since he's about $500K ahead)
And that is my prediction
(These estimates are for online donations only, of course)
I guess $7.5 million
Love your website; thanks for the great work. Everybody had more time to plan this time, but with this being Christmas time, I think that we will see nearly the same rate of giving. So I am guessing that $9,116,010 will come in and that we will pass $500,000 at 2:45am. Hopefully my guess is low.
$11.59Mil
Ok, ok, I shorted myself. I believe. I believe. $14.56M.
With all the people who have mentioned maxing out / giving a lot more than $100 and with the fact that we already have over 100k unique donors this quarter... and the fact that we will probably bring in 30-50k new donors tomorrow I fully expect to see us raise
$20,082,008 and i'm saying this in all seriousness
It's be a $5 mil day. If I'm wrong I won't mind.
$7862627.00
$7,001,216.07
$13,061,041.23
I know I'm normally the more optimistic in my crowd anyway, but with this campaign it seems that no matter what we predict, we underestimate. Plus, the numbers just as they are right now suggest about $8M if you use the same proportion of dollars to number of people signed up on the web site, so as I see it that's our baseline. Once this hits, I think it'll snowball even beyond that. People will bleed for this like they never have before.
And since most of you guys are aiming lower, this gives me better odds of winning. ;-)
Forty-two million dollars.
I gave $100 last time, I'm giving $1000 this time.
How much is freedom worth?
$8,450,000 total on 12/16
Passing Huckabee..... who is he? Is he running for something?
I think he would make a wonderful dog catcher...
He will be passed at 3:42 AM and lapped every three hours or so...
He Mike, if the dog catcher thing doesn't work out, I know of a certain Senator from NY who needs some more deceivers on her staff. Perhaps she will admire your dedication for raising taxes and hire you on the spot.
You won't have to worry about temptation at your new job.... they, um, er, ah, are all "left-handed" if you know what I mean.
Great reading about you in the news the other day. I found [url=http://www.taxhikemike.net/] the articles[/url] remarkably even handed.
$8,450,000 total on 12/16
Passing Huckabee..... who is he? Is he running for something?
I think he would make a wonderful dog catcher...
He will be passed at 3:42 AM and lapped every three hours or so...
Hey Mike, if the dog catcher thing doesn't work out, I know of a certain Senator from NY who needs some more deceivers on her staff. Perhaps she will admire your dedication for raising taxes and hire you on the spot.
You won't have to worry about temptation at your new job.... they, um, er, ah, are all "left-handed" if you know what I mean.
Great reading about you in the news the other day. I found the articles remarkably even handed.
http://www.taxhikemike.net
Huckabee for dogcatcher? He'd let all the rabid dogs back on the street!
total $5,342,679. pass huck at 12:46 am
$9,580,000. Pass Huckster at 1:15 AM
I guessed right the last time, so I say 8.2M this time.
6.7 mill
and dan, i hope you're ready for the bandwidth slam thats approaching. ;)
I'm going to make the conservative estimate of $4.6 million, which still surpasses his record set last month. Of course, that November 5th total was more than double what I expected, so I hope to similarly surprised again this time. :)
Oh, and I think he'll pass the Huckster around 2:45 AM.
$5,750,000; too many factors keep this from being a blowout . . . Holiday shopping, more maxed out donors, pleas from the campaign to not wait until the Tea Party, Rudy's Reading list two weeks ago, Money bomb every Friday,all trump the upside factors . . . just 1 major upside-more potential donors. As far as Huckabee, I predict he will pass him at about 3:00 a.m.
ロンポールは すごい ですよ！
Ron Paul's December total will pass Huckabee's on Sunday at around 12:43 AM, as lots of Paul supporters will be up late tonight, brimming with excitement. The overall total for Paul's day will be around $5,925,239.25, a new Republican record, but perhaps not as high as some of the wilder predictions would hope. I think that the online pledge count is unreliable as it's likely been infiltrated by Establishment welfare-warfare statists who feel a need to derail the Ron Paul campaign's momentum.
$5.5 million.
i'm going with 6.5 - for the record
I'm very optimistic, and I saw what the excitement of personal involvement did last time. I predict $10,121,776.00. I think that just like the primaries, folks are going to be coming out of the woodwork for this one, just to be part of history or something bigger than themselves, or the most important movement since 1776 or whatever. Once the number gets near 10Mil, there is no way anyone is going to not see it happen even if they have to break into their piggy banks. The immediacy of the web page update (and I hope they are ready for us) will play the biggest role in keeping the momentum going. I see Huckabee gone at 12:51am (lots of rabbits at the starting line).
Best of luck Ron! Best of luck American liberty.
pass huck-n-cluck 223AM. (future KFC competitor)
Paul Haul: $7,728,000
Rock Chalk Jayhawks!@@
skip the O Bowl, go to NH instead.
I would love to have my prediction be way too low (I predicted $5.75 mil about 10 minutes ago) but the Guy Fawkes day was aiming for $100 from 100,000. I predict an average of about $110 from 52,000 or so donors.
Around eight million fiat dollars.
remember when $12 million for the 4th quarter seemed like a lot? Me either.
$10 million for Dec 16th in my prediction.
My prediction is $9.1 million.
I want something nice if I win.
$8,558,621
Half a million just wizzed by at 1:04. Made a nice "whoosh" sound as it passed by.
I'd thought the 2:30 prediction was much too overly optimistic...
Whoops, only $400k, sorry. Apparently I must use my fingers to count when doing math.
Nonetheless, folks, we're doing gooooood. I think whoever said we'd pass Rev. Elmer Weightloss at 1:21 has excellent reception on their crystal ball.
Just hit the $12M milestone at 1:12!
... and 1/2 a mill, right there at 1:20. I'm not sure how much that puts us vs. Huckabee, but the graph is too close to call. I think the 1:21 guy won THAT particular contest.
I'll go crazy and throw out $11.7 million.
At least $7 million, most likely $9 million, possibly $11 million.
I'd guess 8 million, give or take 1.
Im gonna guess you're all way off...18.5 million, it's Christmas!!!
I guess their is a couple higher predictions, I hope the 42mil wins! I honestly believe it's possible, gonna have a Ron Paul Chistmas...Merry Christmas everybody!!!
with using the stats from November 5th, and the fact that this was announced right after the November 5th bomb, I'm going to predict that $11.5 million will be raised.
In the Northeast, the snow will keep people in, and will keep them glued to their computers, and see the total go up and up and up.
Do you think this will finally wake up the MSM? Nah, I didn't think so!!
My guess..... $7,769,321.25
I hope I am under. This is a great day for freedom!
Is Huckabee's donations widget offline now? Doesn't appear to be transmitting data.
Interesting. As of noon, the breakdown is as follows:
Based on the day's average, will hit $4.4million.
Based on the last hour's average, will hit $8million.
Based on the last 5-minute's average, will hit $8.2million.
During the busiest morning-rush 5-minutes, the highest estimate was $8.8million.
If you take the average of $4m+$8.2m, you get $6.1million, unless the graph stays at the current trend through midnight, or there is a batch of after-church/after-lunch donators who jump in all of a sudden.
Whoever guessed $6.1m will probably be correct, as of right now.
$8M? The last hour made 335k, there are 12 more hours and at 12:00 PM it was a $2,25M
2,25 + 12*0.335 = $6.27M
So i don't know how you come to $8M, indeed $6.1M looks like a very good guess atm.
Jules:
I got the $8m figures (extended hour average, extended 5-minute average) from http://paulcash.slact.net, a "competitor" site to RPG. I think both sites offer decent insights.
The graph I'd MOST like to see is an X-comparison and a Y-comparison between November 5th and December 16th. What I mean by this is the net difference in the X-axis from the same point (i.e., how many hours are we ahead of the previous number at the same dollar amount?) and what is the net difference in the Y-axis (i.e., how many dollars we are ahead of the previous number at the same time?).
That progression would also give a nice graph that can show you the hour-per-hour, and dollar-per-dollar comparisons between the days. So far, no one has made those graphs, and it's probably too late to generate them now, but I'll run the comparisons after the day is over.
The day still looks like it'll come up to $6.1m, again unless there is a take-off in terms of the average-trend of the donations. $6.1m is still amazing, but it falls far short of what freedom-lovers should be contributing.
I've asked friends to give just 0.5% of their annual income this year ($100,000 annual = $500 contribution total), which I feel is a great average for those who say they're too poor to donate. Cutting back on 2 fast-food meals a week gets you there.
I have one more donation today, maybe two, depending on how the graph trends.
6.9 Millions and that's final.
$6m ain't looking like it's going to happen, as of 7:45PM EST.
$4.55m at 7:45PM EST leaves us with 4.25 hours remaining. $300k/hour is the trendline, meaning $1.275m left + $4.55m = $5.825m if the trend holds up.
Need quite a boost to $341k per hour from here on out to break $6m.
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