S-U-C-C-E-S-S

Oh man... This day is exceeding my expectations! I thought the $500k prediction I made was going to be pushing it... but now I think we're good to go and then some!

We're not only breaking our own records, but also the Q3 records of the second tier candidates Thompson, Romney and Giuliani... and in only 2 months... that's 66% of a quarter for those keeping track. From the Bydlak email yesterday:

During the third quarter, Fred Thompson raised $9,750,821 to be used during the primary election cycle.

Not counting money that he loaned to his own campaign, Mitt Romney raised $9,896,719.

Rudy Giuliani finished with $10,258,019.

We've got those records well in the bag with over 4 hours to go! At 7:38 we have $10,262,188 on the books for Q4!

Bombs Away!

Well, we had a little unplanned down time this morning... But that's all better now with the exception of 2.5 hours of missing data...

So, here we are, 12 hours into today's Money Bomb and we've already got the 5th best day of the quarter! We've now had as many donors as were signed up on the RudysReadlingList.com site... so it's all gravy from here on out!

Here is a new graph comparing today against several other top days... I left Nov 5th out because it just dwarfs everything else, and makes this graph kinda useless.

Back in business

Same exact amount of down time as on the 17th... unreal.. sorry for the inconvenience.

No Data, Again

this weird thing is happening again... So... there has been no new data since 8:30am... godaddy is trying to figure out the problem... but if it goes like last time, it will just come back up all on its own around 11... VERY ANNOYING.

Sorry... I'm doing everything I can..

For Those About To Rock,

I Salute You.

We are just hours away from yet another momentous occasion in this campaign... RudysReadingList.com subscribers (over 2,200 of them) and probably hundreds if not thousands more will be throwing their $100 (or more... or less) into the campaign coffers throughout the day on Friday (11/30). Last day of the month, and last chance to have your donation effect the media blitz in NH, IA and other early primary states.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict a $500,000 day.... Anything over about $390k will put this final week of November as the second best week of the quarter AND Friday as the second best day of the quarter. This is of course speculation until the money starts rolling in, but I've got A Feeling.

here's a graph of the day (along with all the others):




Tomorrow's event is less than 2 weeks in the making, and it's going to beat every other candidates "money bomb" attempts COMBINED...

Please give your most generous donation.

And don't forget to commit to a weekly donation at RonPaulMoneyBomb.... $10, $25, $50, or more, whatever you can do, if you can...

Quick Update: Official Offline Total

The Total added in recently was $233,914.56 for 3732 donors.

bringing the total in offline donations/donors to $1,253,288.59 / 20,595.

The Good, The Bad and The Updates

UPDATE: Ron Paul was just making a point in the debate! He did NOT mean that they are literally "struggling to find ways to spend the money"... That is not a problem any political campaign in history has had... I assure you, your money is needed desperately.

Monday (11/26) was the 6th weekly money bomb... It didn't do much, mostly due to lack of publicity and anticipation of other upcoming events. There is work going on behind the scenes to improve communication, the list is growing, and word is getting out. Please consider signing up and giving every week, before and after the Tea Party, if you are able.

Tuesday (11/27) Jonathan Bydlak sent another plea for continued donations:

"We have approximately 900 hours until the Iowa caucuses and about 1,000 hours until voters in New Hampshire go to the polls...."

Once again, it had an immediate and significant impact and brought in $139,766, the 9th best day of the quarter, so far. While not quite as big as the last email response ($250k, 3rd best day) is was quite significant, especially considering that many supporters are planning on making a big donation this Friday as part of the RudysReadingList.com (money bomb #7) effort which now has over 2100 pledges!



I think this is going to be a really good week overall.


The campaign added about $235,000 worth of offline donations into the total. I am waiting to get an official total.

SITE UPDATES:

I have added a new text page which lists all the days of the quarter, ordered by total raised... see it here.

I recently added a graph of the number of subscribers at the paulunteer.com grassroots newsletter:



It's a great way to keep up on the highlights of what's going on in the community.


Don't forget to vote in the polls in the sidebar.

Logarithmic Scales

I've had a number of requests for logarithmic scales on the y-axis of some graphs.. so they used to look like this:



now it looks like this:





I have also applied this technique to the per capita graphs:





I don't seem to have the control I wish I had over the labels... but I'm working on it.

What do you think?

There is an unrelated poll in the sidebar.

Behind The Scenes

It's been over a month since I wrote this article which gave a little bit of detail about how things work on my end. Things can really change in a month.. Frankly, I've lost track of all the new stuff since that article, so I'm just going to do another overview focusing more on the technical details about what I do here...

About The Data:

RonPaulGraphs.com now has data from 14 unique web sites (not including several sources of lookup/reference data) my data directory contains 33 "feeds" created from those sources. This is over 51 megabytes of data and growing each day.

Each source of data is collected on a schedule that I feel makes the most sense given the frequency of updates. Intrade, Youtube, Eventful data and a couple others are only updated once per day, so I only grab them once per day. Ron Paul and Huckabee data tend to change in interesting ways quite frequently, so I update them every couple minutes. While other data like RonPaulBlimp.com, RonPaulForums.com, teaparty07.com, and a few others change unpredictably or subtly enough that an update every hour or three is sufficient. November 5th, and November 11th no longer need updating.. obviously. The final category of data is the stuff I update manually when it changes, such as data about my personal donations, Primary Data, chipins/PACs, and several lookup sources like census population data used for my per capita data. I can adjust each of the schedules as needed which I will occasionally do for the Ron Paul financial/donor data on heavy donation days in an attempt to get more donor names/locations per hour.

Some of the data comes to me in easily digestible CSV format, some of it I have to extract from HTML pages or XML. In most cases I simply parse the data and toss it into a set of fairly consistent CSV files for graphing and mapping. For some of the bigger data feeds I keep the stuff I need to work with in a database for performance reasons as well as a way to offload some complexity to the database queries. The reason all the data is not in the database is mostly due to the organic evolution of the software and because it's just so darn easy to create and read CSV files... and sometimes that's just all you need.

The Code

The software which generates the graphs and html pages you see when you visit RonPaulGraphs is all custom code written on with the Java programming language and a number of free and/or open source libraries. Some of the prominent libraries and technologies include jquery, jfreechart, velocity and a bunch of stuff from Apache Commons.

The source code and data live in my personal SVN repository, which allows me to easily update my local environment to look like my server and visa-versa.

There are around 700 files and 70 megabytes that make up all the necessary bits to create the site you see.


The Process

The data fetching is done by its own processes, each on their own schedule, as mentioned above.

The html and graph generation, and site updates are done every 5 minutes by another process. When this process runs it gets the latest code and data, then runs through the entire site generation, this takes about 2 minutes.

When I need to make a change (add a new graph, chipin, link, page, whatever) I make it on my MacBook Pro, test it, and check it into the afore mentioned SVN repository, and my server takes over from there. The server running all this stuff is a Linux box hosted by godaddy.com... I'm also the system admin... my least favorite part.

The Site

The site you see is entirely disconnected from the data, it is merely a static result of the process described above. The customization options on the front page and all the maps are features that run on your browser based on the javascript and html that I generate. The information you customize is stored only in your cookies and I have no way of knowing how those features are really being used...

When I made my first blog post I was pretty excited to have just shy of 2000 visitors in a day... Well, I probably don't have to tell you that has gone up :) 60 blog posts and over 40 days later I get 4 times that many on a "bad day" and on my best day (November 5th) I had over 144,000 visitors in a single day!

Hundreds of sites link to RonPaulGraphs and hundreds more have embedded images and/or use "my" figures for reference.

I hear from dozens (hundreds?) of people every week with feedback, questions, suggestions and complaints.

Me

I don't even want to tell you how many hours I have into this project (I could only guess anyway)... but needless to say, it's more than a hobby at this point. It's still fun for me and has really been a fantastic experience, and I look forward to every email and can't wait to check out the numbers when I wake up every morning.

I have learned technologies and techniques that I may never have had the incentive to use in my day job. Solved problems I may never have encountered. Learned from people I may never have met.

I've talked to people in the campaign and have been 1 degree of separation from a national political figure that I really admire. I think I've had a positive impact on this campaign, and like many of you, I feel like we're writing at least a page or two of political history, and with any luck, a whole book.

For my first attempt at getting involved in the world of politics, this has been tremendously rewarding and has certainly changed my life.

Thanks to everyone of you who have been so supportive. Some of the best ideas have come from the community and I do my best to implement them as they come in. Keep up the great work!

dan

Money Bomb #6 On Monday!

The Weekly Money Bomb is tomorrow from 1pm to 4pm. I have created a new graph for it:



Please donate!

Before the inevitable angry complaints start rolling in... Yes, I know about RudysReadingList. Yes, I will be promoting that event as well. No, I won't change my mind and limit the events I'm promoting. I think they are all good, helpful and OPTIONAL. RonPaulMoneyBomb.com has been around since before the November 5th event and they have almost 2,500 subscribers. This is a valuable effort and deserves your support, if you are able. I intend on donating *something* on the 26th, the 30th, the 16th and any other events I find.

The vast majority of donors are not maxed out and I don't feel these weekly events will have any significant impact on the teaparty07.com effort. I stand by my support of the official campaign position that they need money NOW and in the weeks leading up to and beyond the 16th of December.

We are just finishing up the third best week of the quarter! Let's continue that momentum right through the end of the year! With two Money Bomb events this week, I think it's going to be exciting and fun.. Stick around here and watch for more graphs, more stats, more opinionated commentary, and more calls for donation bliss! Use the RSS link in the sidebar to subscribe to this blog, if you haven't already.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention a new graph for the RonPaulBlimp.com effort:

Happy Thanksgiving!

I'm about to take off for some over eating and family time. Before I go, I have a few comments and updates.

There was a bit of controversy over Tuesday's campaign email and its impact on December 16th. I think we've managed to strike a happy balance, and if the TeapParty07 subscriber graph or the poll in my sidebar are any indication, Dec 16th is still going to be one hellofaday. There is a new effort at RudysReadingList.com for November 30th... brought to you by the same Trevor Lyman who brought you Nov 5th and TeaParty07.



We raised over $250k on Tuesday, at noon we'd only raised $5k and were on track for the worst fund raising day of the quarter (third in a row!). Jonathan Bydlak sent out what I thought was a great email with just the right level of urgency at around 2pm and donation levels have been higher ever since. Not only did we have the third best day of the quarter, we also caught and beat Mike Huckabee's fund raising efforts, despite the fact that they were having a community organized Money Bomb for the entire day! Here's a snapshot of that:



Wednesday was another great day, pulling in over $110k, the 9th best day of the quarter!

I think/hope we have shown that this community can adjust on-the-fly and we're not so married to any particular strategy that we can't help the campaign on its terms as well as our own. Fund raising levels are strong, Dec 16th is going to be a success and hopefully November 30th will be as well. Please head over to RudysReadingList.com and commit to your most generous donation on that day, Dec 16th, and whenever else you are able!

SITE UPDATES:

I have added a 11/20 RP vs MH snapshot and the RudysReadingList.com subscriber graph (both linked above). I've had a few corrections/updates on the primary map, keep those coming!

Thanks to several hours of support and CSS tutelage from Leo at PaulCash, the widget on the directory page now works the way I initially envisioned. It's MUCH smoother, more stable, more fancier and just plain cooler now, check it out.

Have a great Thanksgiving and don't forget to donate early and often! See you on Sunday.

The Time For The 2007 Tea Party Is Right NOW!

UPDATE 2: I'm NOT trying to say that individuals saving up to donate are doing something wrong.... yikes.. If you can't afford to donate, don't!! But I think some people have the idea that all that matters is breaking records and having huge days. All I'm saying is, keep the actual goal in mind... If the campaign says they need money, please donate. Media buys cost a million plus dollars each! That makes having 5 or 8 million in the bank not seem like so much, ESPECIALLY when you are trying to plan weeks or months in advance or you're trying to win the most important states in the primaries.

UPDATE: Remember the current goal is to win NH and get Ron Paul the GOP nomination, NOT to raise more money than anyone else in a single day. Winning NH is worth 100 Tea Parties or November 5ths.

TeaParty07.com is an amazing effort... and I think it will be a great day. But the fact is that it's harming the campaign right now:

"If you wait a month from now to donate, your money will only be spent after Iowa caucus-goers and New Hampshire primary voters have made up their minds.

We are rapidly running out of time. The Iowa caucus is just 44 days away. New Hampshire is in 49 days. With so much ground to make up, we can't afford to waste a single day."

Jonathan Bydlak
Fundraising Director
Ron Paul 2008


He's right, of course. Donations have all but dried up in anticipation of events that are still nearly a month away. The campaign is spending money as fast as they can raise it, EVEN with November 5th on the books. They can't wait for the money and we can't wait to donate. Please give today! Give tomorrow. December 16th is too late to have an effect on this primary season. We need to make a splash in NH, Iowa, and the other early states, right now! Donate again on the 16th for the media coverage or the symbolism if you would like, but no amount of press that close to the actual vote is going to help the campaign as much as more TV and Radio ads over the next 30 days will. PLEASE donate today.

A few people have argued that we're going to lose all the value the press on another record breaking fund raising day would bring us... But what will that matter if it's too late to really influence voters, which is the name of the game. We could have a $12 million dollar day and it wouldn't generate as much press as a win in the New Hampshire primary. We need to keep our eyes on the prize here and work towards the real short term goal, which is getting the GOP nomination for Ron Paul! More TV ads, more radio ads, more fliers, more direct phone calls, more marketing, that is what is needed from TODAY until the end of the quarter. The only things that gets us there are your support and frequent generous donations.

Waiting until December 16th is waiting over 75% of our remaining time away... The time to act is now, the action to take is a big fat donation.

New Graph Directory Page

Now with over 130 graphs, it's been time for a better way to browse graphs for a while.

Check it out

You might need to clear your cache to get the page to work properly... shift reload on some computers... ctrl refresh on others...

About half the time creating this page was getting it to work in IE... Have I mentioned how much I detest Internet Explorer lately? Please, download Firefox!

UPDATE: The old directory page is here for those who just can't change :)

Today Is An Official Money Bomb Event!

You might not know it, but money bombs are a weekly event. Nov 5th and Dec 16th are the big ones, but we're doing it every week.

http://www.ronpaulmoneybomb.com/

Please get your funds ready and gather the family around the computer and give your most generous donation between the hours of 1pm and 2pm EST time and watch the spike!

Does your meetup know about it? Does your web site tell people about it? I forgot myself.. so a little reminder to those who might be interested wouldn't hurt anyone.

Missing Data

From 8:30am to 11am this morning (11/17) my server was unable to resolve domain names or reach the internet... as soon as I woke up and noticed the problem and called support... the problem corrected itself. godaddy's response was "it all looks fine on our end"... right...

Anyway.. the end result is no data was collected for that 2.5 hour period.. Just thought I'd like everyone know, in case you noticed... "fortunately" it's a slow day so I guess I didn't miss much.

New Graphs For RonPaulForums.com

One of the cornerstones of this movement is RonPaulForums.com. Many of the best ideas in the grassroots originate there.

Here are 4 new graphs showing Threads, Posts, Members and Active Members

Active Members:	Members:
Threads:	Posts:

UPDATE: added a couple more:

Online Guests:

Members:

These update once per hour.

The Primaries Are Coming, The Primaries Are Coming!

I have added a new page that shows a color coded map indicating which state primaries/caucuses are coming up. Clicking on a state will show some more details about that state. There is almost certainly some incorrect or confusing data in there, so let me know if you find anything fishy or you hear about a date change or something... I have to update this data manually.

More Offline Donations Added

The campaign has added more offline donations into the total. This brings the value of offline donations included in the total to $1,019,374.03 and the number of donors to 16,863.

I am working on providing more detail about these numbers.

Server Maintenance

The campaign server is having some maintenance done from 11pm - 1am EST tonight... I will take this opportunity to fix a timezone problem that has been driving me bat shit crazy.. this will require me to stop the site generation and may or may not require a reboot... but it will be soooooo worth it.

Unless I completely break stuff I should be back up and running before the campaign is.

Campaign Site Is Temporarily Down

Power outage?, server upgrades?, Elbonian hackers?

The Ron Paul campaign web site has been down since 8:20pm EST. They are aware of the problem and will be fixing it shortly. I will update this post and change the message on RonPaulGraphs when I see everything is back up.

UPDATE: back up at about 10:40pm EST

Speaking Of Popular!

I don't think I've ever had 5 separate requests for the exact same new graph in 24 hours before :)

So here you go! TeaParty07.com vs ThisNovember5th.com members.

New Week Over Week Graphs

The week over week graph is one of the most popular on the site.. so I've created a couple more.

October:

November:

The last 4 weeks, including this week:

Goal Met For November

Thanks to the November 11th money bomb, we've now crossed the $8 million dollar mark and well on our way to crushing the $12 million dollar goal for the quarter.

We're also the 3rd best day of the quarter with 6 hours left to go! keep it up!

November 11th Graph And Some New Stuff

Here's the graph for todays money bomb.



Off to a great start already!!


I have changed the directory page to use these new little thumbnails I made



Isn't it cute? If your eyes can't handle the tiny font.. just mouse over it to see a tooltip with the title in it.

I have fixed several bugs related to IE... these have been around for a while I would say.. I know there aren't many of you IE users, so you gotta speak up :) The configure layout checkbox should now work correctly for you. I know there is a problem with the alexa page for IE... I have no clue why.. I don't really like the alexa graphs anyway... if someone knows of a good alternative.. let me know.

New poll in the sidebar.

November 5th Encore

There aren't any fancy rhymes that I'm aware of, and we probably won't raise multiple millions of dollars. But November 11th is just 2 days away.



If you're not already signed up please do so now! If you don't want to sign up, please donate anyway :)

Over 1,500 people are already signed up... If we have the same average donation size we had on the 5th, we're already well over $150k, which is a great total, especially for a Sunday! With just a few hundred more people we'll be able to reach and exceed $8 million raised so far for Q4. That will put us almost 3 weeks ahead of the $12 million dollar goal set by the campaign and position us to raise 300% or more of the Q3 total! We're only a few hundred more November 11th commitments away from having a $5 million dollar week, nearly as much as was raised in 3 months last quarter!

If you have a Ron Paul friendly blog, website or mailing list... PLEASE let people know about this Sunday, November 11th and let's show people that November 5th was just a warm up!

Some Site News

I have been tweaking and adding some stuff... I've added an estimate of the total number of unique donors in the fourth quarter to the text stats page.

There is now an FAQ. I will add stuff to this page as I get questions that require "complex" answers or that I am asked Frequently.

The per capita donor maps are each now on their own page, and there is a second level of navigation allowing you to check them all out... The newest map is the per capita unique donors on november 5th.

UPDATE: actually... the newest map is today's donor names and locations I like it! Oh... and I made all the maps much larger in size.

Text Stats

I wrapped up the work I was doing on the text stats page. I added a link to the page in the main site navigation. I've added a few new stats and rearranged a few things. I have made all 4 individual tables available for placement on the front page. Check the configure layout box, and choose what stuff you want where... then uncheck the box and you're good to go!

Better Events Graph

I've had this on the back burner for like a week.. I have some other ideas I want to add to it.. but it's a start and is quite a bit better than the existing Q4 totals chart with the events on it.

Projection, Meet Reality... Reality, Meet Projection.

Since the quarter started this graph has been a bit depressing to look at... with millions of dollars separating the 12 million goal and the linear projection... BUT NOT ANYMORE!



As I'm about to go to bed.. I'm absolutely positive I'm going to wake up and see the blue projection line ABOVE the goal line. We are nearly 3 weeks ahead of where we "need" to be! If donations continue like they have for the last 24 hours, I dare say we'll reach our 12 million goal closer to the end of November than the end of December.

Keep it up everyone! The country is taking notice and people are flocking to the revolution YOU made happen.

Making The Switch

I think I have it all set up right... So I pulled the trigger and switched the name servers... over the next day or so traffic should seamlessly switch to my new server. If you don't get a response to an email try it again in a day or so... just in case.. Let me know if you notice any problems with the switch... if you're on the new server you should see some text at the bottom of every page that says "new server".

A Tipping Point

Well you all know by now that yesterday was a historic day. By my calculations we raised a total of $3,992,786!! With 38,887 donors! More than double the number that had signed up at thisnovember5th.com. Roughly 80% of the donors were people who had not previously donated in the 4th quarter.

Today (November 6th) we've already achieved the second best day of the year! $202k and counting. The 2,624 people who have donated so far today seem to be almost entirely new Q4 donors!

At the risk of being proven completely wrong in the next few days... I think yesterday was the tipping point for this campaign. With all the new donors and new press, word is going to spread at an amazing rate. 1000 new meetup members in a day... thousands of new donors each day... This campaign is on fire!

Don't forget to sign up for thisnovember11th.com

Some site news... I have added a page of just text stats. I am configuring a new server to take the load. I had 177k visits yesterday! The previous record was more than 10 times less than that :) The massive spike yesterday is going to be distorting a number of graphs for a while.. I'm working on some new graphs to help rectify that problem... but expect at least a week of weirdness in most graphs.

p.s. I'm unable to keep up with the comments on all my blog posts now.. if you have something important to tell me, please use email. dan [at] ron paul graphs [dot] com

A Great Day Getting Better

The hosting thing is no longer in crisis mode... bandwidth has been expanded and I have managed to lighten the load a bit. Thanks for all your help!

At my last count 18,353 people had signed up at thisnovember5th.com.

We have now had 18,541 donors! The rate of donation is still absolutely incredible... as of 3:15pm here is where we are at:

$2,171,360 raised
18,541 donors
$117 average donation size
$2373 per minute

More On Hosting

Please limit your refreshing to every 10 minutes or more.

I am working through the issues.. My sweet hosting deal is on its last leg though.. I'm going to need to up the ante a bit.. so I've finally decided to add a donation button... If you have maxed out your donations to the campaign, please consider sending me a few bucks to cover hosting and bandwidth costs.

Hosting Problems.

Hey folks.. I'm overwhelming my host a bit... I am currently seeking a replacement.

If you could slow down on the refreshes a little bit... it would be a big help..

my traffic is up 300% today.

We're Just Getting Started!

I got a couple hours of sleep... let's see where we are now at 11:10am.

$1,348,377 raised
10,427 donors
$129 average donation.

Amazing!

I woke up to over 50 emails! What a great day! The community is really shining today.

How High Will It Go?

I'm writing this at 3:45am... about to go to bed.. Here's where we're at.

$356,291 raised.
2,764 donors
$128 average donation
$1583 per minute.


This is more than was raised in all of week 1. This is already the biggest day of the quarter in under 4 hours.

Over 18,000 people signed up at thisnovember5th.com if the donation average holds out and every one of the 18,000 people donate... that's $2.3 million...

I can't wait to see where we are in the morning.

One More Thing... If you're already maxed out.. don't forget about the chipins and PACs over here: http://ronpaulgraphs.com/chipin.html

Offline Donations Added!

The campaign has added another chunk of offline donors totaling $326,470. I have treated it the same way I treated the previous offline addition.

There is a new fundraising widget... I really like it!

Would That Be Considered A "Good Start"?

Hot damn! over $110k in the first 43 minutes...

I have just completed a MASSIVE rewrite of some behind the scenes stuff... The impact on you is that the maps and state donor graphs are now all updated every 5 minutes with the rest of the site.

I am aware there was some weird behavior in some graphs around 12am... The amazing burst of donations coupled with some weird daylight savings stuff created a minor anomaly. I am checking it out... but what can you expect from a system of time controlled by the whims of bureaucracy.

Expect a few more updates today as I tweak stuff...

Here It Comes...

The campaign is delivering the correct time in the feed now.. but there still seems to be a bug in a couple graphs... I'm trying to figure it out.. I hate daylight savings time and our calendar system more than you can possibly imagine.

Things are already picking up!

Here is a graph that will show Nov 5 and 6 hours on either side of it.



And of course there's the regular Nov 5th graph:



Don't forget you can customize the front page to include whatever graphs you want! Just click the "configure layout" checkbox at the top of the home page.

I am going to be collecting data by the minute now instead of every 2 minutes... the site will still refresh every 5 minutes.

Here is an effort by Robert of thisnovember11th.com to try and contact facebook subscribers about Monday's November 5th Money Bomb event. Can you help?

Points Of Interest

Look how closely the donation levels for today match last saturday:



This is a snapshot from this graph. The red line is an "average" day. The cyan line is last saturday, the black line is today (saturday).

For 15 hours these two lines have been within a few hundred dollars of each other on a minute by minute basis. Even with November 5th looming large and many people excitedly waiting to hit that donation button, the donation level is for all intents and purposes, identical to last week.

As you can see in this graph:



The donations today are almost entirely made up of new donors (green line) as are the last 2 days. Even compared to last Saturday, donations are made up more and more of new donors. (This graph is PER CAPITA... donors per million people. The black line is the total number of names/cities/states I have captured. The green line represents the number of people who had not yet been captured on a previous day. The red line is the total number of online donors according to the campaign.)

Some things to watch for on November 5th.

- will there be an explosion of repeat donors? watch the gap between the black and green lines in the above graph.
- will the shape of the graph follow the "average" day line just at much higher levels in this graph?

Some things to watch for on November 6th, 7th, 8th, etc...
- will donations immediately drop back down to the levels we've been seeing the last two weeks? slightly higher? much higher? will it taper or be a sudden correction?
- what impact will the press have on the average level of new donors each day? will the press even pick it up?
- assuming it's as wildly successful as many of us feel it will be, will the campaign attempt to replicate this type of event?

In preparation for Monday (and beyond) please consider signing up at thisnovember5th.com if you haven't already so you can be counted in my graph:



Also, consider the future and sign up at thisnovember11th.com and give again on Veterans Day!



UPDATE: Two polls in the side bar.

New Intrade Graph

Here is a daily closing price comparison for the GOP nomination on intrade.com.



I've been thinking about this for a while but was inspired to finish it up by this blog post.

New Ron Paul vs. Huckabee Graph

By Popular Request!



If that graph doesn't inspire Ron Paul fans to give a little more, nothing will :)

UPDATE: Huckabee reset his number to just the November total in the middle of the day... instead of bothering with correcting the several hundred affected records I just ditched them... this graph will be back to normal in a couple hours.

October raised $2,615,567 for the campaign (not including a week or two of offline donations of an unknown amount)

Here's a new graph comparing this month to last.



Let's have a huge month!